Post-election commentary from UBC Arts scholars

October 22, 2019

Canadians have voted and Justin Trudeau’s Liberal party has won a minority. UBC political scientists, economists and psychologists shared their insights on the election with media outlets across the country, speaking on voter turnout, electoral reform, and what a minority government will mean for the climate and the economy.

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau loses his sheen — and his majority
UBC political scientist Max Cameron says Justin Trudeau’s broad support base is crumbling, reducing his power as prime minister.
LA Times

The ‘major problem’ of Trudeau’s second term as Canadian Prime Minister is China – Professor
Allan Tupper, professor and head of the political science department at UBC was featured in a Q&A on various Canadian political issues.
Sputnik News

Jody Wilson-Raybould wins tight race in Vancouver Granville
Candis Callison, an author and UBC journalism and Indigenous studies professor, analyzed the implications of Jody Wilson-Raybould’s re-election.
Toronto Star

Higgs may create his own carbon tax. Here are his options
UBC economist Kevin Milligan was quoted in a story on a potential carbon tax in New Brunswick.

B.C. calls for unity as Western alienation sentiments surge
B.C. could try to play a peacemaker role between the western provinces and Ottawa, suggests UBC political scientist Gerald Baier.

What does a Liberal minority government mean for the issues that matter to B.C.?
Discussing Trans Mountain issues, UBC political scientist Kathryn Harrison says the big questions are what happens in court and the potential for civil disobedience.

The key Liberal wins and losses in B.C. this federal election
Gerald Baier, acting director at UBC’s Centre for the Study of Democratic Institutions commented on the reelection of four cabinet ministers in B.C.
Globe and Mail

Could the NDP try to influence Trans Mountain pipeline expansion?
UBC political scientists Gerald Baier, Kathryn Harrison and Richard Johnston were quoted in a CTV story on whether NDP leader Jagmeet Singh can or will try to block TMX expansion.

These B.C. ridings saw the biggest federal election voter turnout — we asked why
Richard Johnston, a Canadian politics professor at UBC, spoke about the role played by demographics in voter turnout.
Star Vancouver

Will urban-led government result in urban-oriented policies for Vancouver?
UBC political scientist Carey Doberstein says the common ground shared by the Liberals, NDP and Greens could enable the Liberals to move on urban issues.

Canadians demand change for polling stations, electoral system
Allan Tupper, a professor of political science at UBC, commented on the prospects of electoral reform.

Why Canada election candidates dodged Hong Kong protest ‘minefield’ ahead of Justin Trudeau’s win
The protest movement in Hong Kong was not a “good electoral issue” for Canadian politicians, says Yves Tiberghien, a professor of political science at UBC.
South China Morning Post

How to cope with not getting the leader you wanted
UBC clinical psychologist Ingrid Söchting has words of advice for people dealing with post-election stress and disappointment.
Global, MSN

Experts torn whether Jody Wilson Raybould can rejoin Liberals
Jody Wilson-Raybould will have significantly less power as an Independent in Parliament, say UBC political scientists Kathryn Harrison, Gerald Baier and Richard Johnston.

A tale of B.C.: From red to blue, close calls, and big wins
UBC political science professor Gerald Baier says the return from red to blue in B.C. is partly in line with the province’s record.
News 1130

How the west was lost
B.C. may gain a bigger role in cabinet but political science professor Richard Johnston says the province won’t be speaking for Western Canada.
Business in Vancouver

Students’ mock election is even more fractured than the real thing
Richard Johnston, Canada Research Chair in public opinion, elections and representation at UBC says the Conservatives have become the party of rural and resource Canada.
Globe and Mail

Big jump in B.C.’s Tory vote in rural ridings points to polarization, political scientist says
UBC political scientist Richard Johnston discussed the Conservatives’ inroads in B.C. outside the Lower Mainland.
Vancouver Sun

Pundits parse North Vancouver Liberal wins as ‘red tide’ retreats
UBC political scientists Kathryn Harrison, Richard Johnston and Gerald Baier discussed how the Liberals hung on to their seats on the North Shore.
North Shore News

Is the Liberal climate plan achievable?
Kathryn Harrison, a political science professor at UBC, says some aspects of the Liberal climate plan can be achieved.

Voter turnout dips to 66 per cent compared with enthusiasm that brought Trudeau to power four years ago
Richard Johnston, a political science professor at UBC, said it’s difficult to make any strong predictions on election outcome based on advance polling results.
Globe and Mail

Greens’ historic eastern win undermined by western disappointments
UBC political science professor Kathryn Harrison commented on the high level of attention to climate change in the election and how the Greens did not benefit from this momentum.

How Trudeau’s broken promise on vote reform may haunt him now
UBC political scientists Richard Johnston and Kathryn Harrison were quoted in a Tyee story on the Liberals’ track record. Johnston discussed the effect of their broken promise to reform the electoral system and Harrison commented on how the Liberals could have fared under a preferential voting system.

Liberals lose seats in B.C., and minority has major consequences for province
The NDP will likely support the Liberals on many more issues than it opposes them on, says UBC political scientist Richard Johnston.
Globe and Mail

Tories make gains in B.C. while Grits lose ground and NDP fails to break through
Max Cameron, a political science professor at UBC, said many former Conservative supporters who voted for other parties in 2015 have “gone back to their roots.”
Canadian Press via National PostThe Province, Leader Post

How B.C. voted: Liberals punished, Green breakthrough fades
UBC political scientist Gerald Baier says the poll results suggest the NDP core is still around and they responded to Jagmeet Singh’s leadership.
Vancouver Sun

Trans Mountain safe, fish farms aren’t
The NDP isn’t in a position to demand terminating the Trans Mountain pipeline as a condition for supporting the government, comments UBC political scientist Richard Johnston.
Business in Vancouver

Liberals win a strong plurality of votes, what will a minority government mean for Canadian pocketbooks
The NDP’s wealth tax would be a highly difficult tax reform to implement, comments UBC economist Kevin Milligan in a BIV story about the implications of a minority government.
Business in Vancouver

Excerpts from the UBC Daily Media Summary.